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I. Market focus:
Unexpectedly weak data on durable goods orders, released yesterday, provoked a surge in volatility in the markets, putting pressure on the dollar. However, the negative sentiment was short-lived, and the U.S. currency has fully recovered all the losses by the beginning of today's session. Globally, the dollar continues to consolidate, and its index remains within the range formed after the Fed’s June meeting. Technically, the U.S. currency is ready to resume its growth, the fundamental basis of which will be further tightening of the monetary policy by the Fed and reduction of its balance sheet. But so far, there are not enough arguments to begin this process. Such arguments may be either strong macroeconomic data or statements by the Fed’s officials about the regulator’s plans. Today’s economic calendar contains events, which potentially could trigger the dollar strengthening.
The key macroeconomic report of Tuesday will be data on the consumer confidence index in the U.S. (14:00 GMT). Attention should also be paid to the report on home prices in 20 major U.S. metropolitan areas (13:00 GMT). At 17:00 GMT, the speech of the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will begin. Apart from Yellen, two more regulators’ chiefs will speak today: the ECB at 08:00 GMT and the Bank of England at 10:00 GMT.
II. The market highlights are:
The Chicago Federal Reserve reported on Monday the Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, fell to -0.26 in June from an upwardly revised 0.57 in April (originally +0.49), pointing to slower economic growth in May. According to the report, three of the four broad categories made negative contributions to the index in May. The index’s three-month moving average dropped to +0.04 last month from +0.21 in April. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI fell to -0.16 in May from +0.53 in April. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the index slipped down to -0.09 in May from -0.07 in April. Employment-related indicators contributed -0.02 to the CFNAI in May, down from +0.12 in April. Meanwhile, the sales, orders, and inventories category made a contribution of +0.02 to the CFNAI in May, up slightly from -0.01 in April.
The Commerce Department reported on Monday that new orders for U.S. durable goods fell 1.1 percent m-o-m in May after a revised 0.9 percent decrease in the prior month (initially a 0.7 percent drop). That was the biggest decline in six months. Economists had expected a decline of 0.6 percent. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business investment, fell 0.2 percent last month, after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in April (originally a 0.1 percent uptick). Economists had forecast core capital goods orders growing 0.3 percent in May. Shipments of those so-called core capital goods reduced 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods excluding the transportation category edged up 0.1 percent in May after a revised 0.5 percent decline in the previous month (originally a 0.4 percent fall), while orders excluding defense dropped 0.6 percent last month after a revised 0.9 percent tumble in April (originally a 0.4 percent decline).
The ECB President Mario Draghi, speaking to university students in Lisbon, defended the regulator's policy, arguing that young people would benefit from the revival of euro-area growth. According to Draghi, keeping interest rates low had helped create jobs and reduce inequality. The ECB president acknowledged that youth unemployment “is still very high,’’ but noted that “the millennials that found a job because of our policy, I’m pretty sure they are okay” with the ECB’s strategy. Draghi did not discuss the scaling back its massive bond-buying program but made it clear that such actions are seen to be counterproductive in the near-term perspective.
Statistics New Zealand released on Tuesday the May figures for the county’s trade balance. According to the report, goods exports rose 8.7 y-o-y to NZD5.0 billion last month, with the increase being led by higher sales of milk powder, butter, and cheese (+42 percent y-o-y). Meanwhile, goods imports boosted 15 percent y-o-y to NZD4.8 billion last month. The major contributors to the increase were petroleum products (+71 percent y-o-y) and motor vehicles and parts (+22 percent y-o-y). As a result, the country’s trade balance recorded a surplus of NZD103 million in May compared to NZD536 million in the previous month (revised from initially reported NZD578 million). Economists had projected trade surplus of NZD420 million.
III. Market Situation
The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly higher, due to partial profit-taking after yesterday's decline. Many investors also awaited new catalysts to move. Today, the focus will be on the U.S. data on the consumer confidence index and home prices, as well as speeches by the ECB President Mario Draghi and the Fed Chair Janet Yellen. Investors will focus on whether Yellen will again say that weakening inflation is a temporary phenomenon, which would confirm her intention to raise rates gradually. Yesterday, New York Fed President William Dudley stated that monetary policymakers need to take the evolution of financial conditions into consideration. “When financial conditions tighten sharply, this may mean that monetary policy may need to be tightened by less or even loosened. On the other hand, when financial conditions ease - as has been the case recently - this can provide additional impetus for the decision to continue to remove monetary policy accommodation,” he added. The Fed-funds futures currently show that the probability the regulator will increase its benchmark fed funds rate again this year is estimated at 45.6 percent compared with 50 percent on Friday and 46.8 percent a week ago (June 20). Resistance level - $1.1220 (high of June 26). Support level - $1.1118 (low of June 20).
The currency pair GBP/USD traded near the opening level, as investors were cautious ahead of the publication of the Bank of England's (BoE) Financial Stability Report and the Confederation of British Industry’s (CBI) data on retail sales, as well as awaited speech of BoE Governor Mark Carney. Some support to the pair was provided by news that the Conservative Party agreed the pact with the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) to support Theresa May's government. Under the deal, which came two weeks after the election resulted in a hung Parliament, the ten lawmakers from the DUP will back May in key Commons votes. This lowered political uncertainties in Britain, which began the process of exiting from the European. Later this week, attention will shift to the final data on UK’s GDP and business investment for the first quarter. It is expected that the Office of National Statistics (ONS) will revise GDP growth for the first quarter upward from the second estimate, reporting a more favorable economic situation. Resistance level - $1.2817 (high of June 14). Support level - $1.2589 (low of June 21).
The currency pair AUD/USD rose moderately, updating yesterday's high, due to the broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. In addition, the market prepared for the Federal Reserve Chair Yellen’s speech. The focus of interest for investors is whether Yellen believes the recent weakening of the U.S. economy is nothing more than a temporary phenomenon. Market participants also await reports on manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs from China, Australia's largest trading partner. Both reports will be released on Friday. The improvement of the readings can provide strong support to the Australian dollar. Resistance level - AUD0.7634 (high of June 14). Support level - AUD0.7518 (low of June 9).
The currency pair USD/JPY rose slightly at the beginning of the session, reaching its high of May 24, but then lost all the gain, and moved to negative territory. Experts note that the main focus today is on the speech of the Fed’s Chair Yellen. Yellen's inclination to tighten monetary policy further is likely to push the pair to at least Y112.20, while any hint of concern may push the pair to Y111. After Yellen's speech, investors will gradually shift their attention to the Japanese inflation data, set to be released on Thursday. Recall, inflation in the country stays well below the target of 2% for a long time. Taking into account the BoJ’s bias, some currency market strategists expect a moderate easing of the yen in the short term. Meanwhile, the BoJ’s discussing of a possible exit from the current policy may be favorable for the yen. Resistance level - Y113.00 (psychological level). Support level - Y110.64 (low of June 16).
U.S. stock indexes closed mixed on Monday, as technology and healthcare sectors mitigated gains from more defensive sectors. Investors' sentiment was also impacted by weaker-than-expected data on durable goods orders for May and stalled oil prices. The Commerce Department reported that new orders for U.S. durable goods fell 1.1 percent m-o-m in May after a revised 0.9 percent decrease in the prior month (initially a 0.7 percent drop). That was the biggest decline in six months. Economists had expected a decline of 0.6 percent. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business investment, fell 0.2 percent last month, after an upwardly revised 0.2 percent gain in April (originally a 0.1 percent uptick). Economists had forecast core capital goods orders growing 0.3 percent in May. Shipments of those so-called core capital goods reduced 0.2 percent in May after increasing 0.1 percent in April. Meanwhile, orders for durable goods excluding the transportation category edged up 0.1 percent in May after a revised 0.5 percent decline in the previous month (originally a 0.4 percent fall), while orders excluding defense dropped 0.6 percent last month after a revised 0.9 percent tumble in April (originally a 0.4 percent decline).
Asian stock indexes closed mixed on Tuesday, as investors awaited the speech by the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for clues on the Fed's next move and the U.S. economic outlook. The Japanese stock index rose to the highest closing level since August 2015, as the Japanese export-oriented companies benefited from the U.S. dollar strengthening ahead of Yellen’s comments.
European stock indexes are expected to trade higher in the morning trading session.
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.14% (0 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.25% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.01% (0 basis points)
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in August settled at $43.44 (+0.14%). The crude oil prices rose slightly, helped by the broad weakening of the U.S. currency. Market participants await weekly reports on the U.S. crude oil inventories. Today, its data on the U.S. oil stockpiles will release the American Petroleum Institute (API). Tomorrow, the focus will be on the weekly data on U.S. crude inventories from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Gold traded at $1245.60 (+0.10%). Gold prices increased slightly on the back of a broad weakening of the U.S. dollar. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, fell 0.08 percent to 97.34. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a weaker dollar makes the precious metal cheaper for holders of foreign currencies.
IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
FOMC Member Williams Speaks
RBA Assist Gov Debelle Speaks
BOE Financial Stability Report
CBI retail sales volume balance
BOE Gov Mark Carney Speaks
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
FOMC Member Harker Speaks
Fed Chairman Janet Yellen Speaks
FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks
Enfoque de mercado
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