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I. Market focus:
At the beginning of the Tuesday session, trading activity in the foreign exchange market remains low due to lack of important reports and data.
The U.S. dollar is under pressure. The increasing political risks in the United States continues to have a negative influence on the dynamics of the U.S. currency. Investors are concerned about the ability of U.S. President Donald Trump to implement his business-friendly initiatives as he loses the Republicans’ support. Most likely, the observed weakness in the dollar will continue in the near future.
Tuesday will be busier with economic releases than Monday was, but the scheduled data and events are not of high importance. Today, the key data will be statistics on the UK public sector net borrowing (08:30 GMT), the European indices from ZEW (09:00 GMT) and the Canadian data on retail sales (12:30 GMT).
The focus of the markets is on the Fed’s annual conference, which will be held on August 24-26 in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, United States. The conference’s theme is “Fostering a dynamic global economy.” Traditionally, the event will be attended by the top economists and policy makers, and their statements can have a significant impact on the markets. First of all, attention will be given to the speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, from whom the market participants expect to receive signals about the further monetary policy actions of the U.S. regulator. Given the recent cooling of the U.S. housing market, as well as inflationary pressures, the Fed’s Chair is likely to be less optimistic about its estimates than before, and this could reduce expectations for the pace of further monetary policy tightening by the U.S. central bank.
II. The market highlights are:
Statistics Canada reported Monday that the Canadian wholesale sales showed a deterioration in June. Wholesale sales fell 0.5 percent m-o-m to CAD61.4 billion, after gaining 1 percent in May (revised up from an initially estimated 0.9 percent increase). That was the first drop in nine months. Economists' had forecast a decrease of 0.4 percent. According to the report, declines were recorded in five of seven subsectors, led by the food, beverage and tobacco subsector (-1 percent m-o-m), and the motor vehicle and parts subsector (-1 percent m-o-m). In y-o-y terms, wholesale sales rose 8.8 percent in June.
The Chicago Federal Reserve announced Monday the Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, fell to -0.01 in July from a revised +0.16 in June (originally +0.13), pointing to growth near historical trend. According to the report, three of the four broad categories made negative contributions to the index last month. The index’s three-month moving average dropped to -0.05 in July from +0.09 in June. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI decreased to –0.02 in July from +0.03 in June. The sales, orders and inventories category made a contribution of -0.01 to the CFNAI in July, down from +0.06 in June. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the index edged up to -0.06 in July from -0.07 in June. Meanwhile, employment-related indicators contributed +0.09 to the CFNAI in July, down from +0.13 in June.
The Conference Board reported Tuesday its leading economic index for Australia, a gauge for the economy's performance months ahead, increased 0.5 percent in June 2017 to 110.6. At the same time, its coincident economic index for Australia, which reflects current economic conditions, rose 0.3 percent in June 2017 to 112.0.
III. Market Situation
The currency pair EUR/USD traded slightly lower, as investors awaited new drivers. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar was under pressure due to increasing political risks in the United States. Investors are concerned about the ability of U.S. President Donald Trump to implement his business-friendly initiatives as he loses the Republicans’ support. Today, the focus will be on the European indices from ZEW. Later this week (on Wednesday), IHS Markit will post its August PMIs, reflecting the activity in the manufacturing and services sectors of the Eurozone. The indicators are expected to show slight decreases but to remain near the July levels. Another important event on Wednesday will be the release of the consumer confidence survey by the European Commission. Economists expect that the consumer confidence index will remain close to the July level, which is only slightly below the highs of the second quarter. If the forecasts are justified, this will strengthen the market expectations that the ECB can taper its asset purchase program in early 2018. Resistance level - $1.1846 (high of August 11). Support level - $1.1731 (low of August 21).
The currency pair GBP/USD traded somewhat lower, reacting to a slight strengthening of the U.S. dollar. With an almost empty economic calendar in the UK ahead, investors will focus on the dynamics of the U.S. currency and the general market sentiment toward risky assets. Later this week, market participants will focus on preliminary data on business investments in the UK in the second quarter. In the first quarter, business investments recorded growth of 0.6 percent q-o-q, which only partially compensated a 0.9 percent q-o-q decrease in the fourth quarter of 2016. Economists expect that Q2 data will show that in the UK's economic growth was 0.3 percent in the three months to June, marginally better than in the prior three-month period. Resistance level - $1.3058 (high of August 7). Support level - $1.2810 (low of July 12).
The currency pair AUD/USD rose slightly early in the session amid higher prices for iron ore and non-ferrous metals but then retreated to the opening level, responding to the Australian data. A weekly survey provided by the ANZ bank and Roy Morgan Research revealed Australia's consumer confidence index fell to 109.2 in the week ended August 20 from 111.7 in the preceding week. The fall in sentiment was broad-based, with four out of five sub-indexes recording drops. The ANZ's head of Australian Economics David Plank noted: "Despite a strong labour market and robust business conditions, we believe that any recovery in consumer confidence is likely to be capped until households experience a material acceleration in wage growth." Resistance level - AUD0.7991 (high of August 2). Support level - AUD0.7869 (low of August 18).
The currency pair USD/JPY rose noticeably, reaching the high of yesterday's session, due to partial profit-taking and strengthening of the U.S. currency. The market focus shifts gradually to the Fed’s annual conference, which will be held on August 24-26 in Jackson Hole. Traditionally, the event will be attended by the top economists and policymakers, and their statements can have a significant impact on the markets. First of all, attention will be given to the speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, from whom the market participants hope to receive signals about the further monetary policy actions of the U.S. regulator. It is expected that Yellen will signal a gradual approach to raising interest rates. The slower-than-expected tightening of the Fed's policy will negatively affect the dollar, while the low costs of borrowings in other world countries will contribute to the growth of demand for risky assets. Market participants are increasingly confident that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will not be the only central bank that maintains a soft monetary policy. Probably, the Fed’s annual conference in Jackson Hole this week will only strengthen their expectations. Resistance level - Y111.05 (high of August 4). Support level - Y108.59 (low on August 18).
U.S. stock indexes closed mostly higher on Monday. Investors paid attention to the U.S. statistics and developments on the Korean Peninsula, as South Korea and U.S. forces began their annual military exercise. The Chicago Federal Reserve announced Monday the Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI), a weighted average of 85 different economic indicators, fell to -0.01 in July from a revised +0.16 in June (originally +0.13), pointing to growth near historical trend. According to the report, three of the four broad categories made negative contributions to the index last month. The contribution from production-related indicators to the CFNAI decreased to –0.02 in July from +0.03 in June. The sales, orders and inventories category made a contribution of -0.01 to the CFNAI in July, down from +0.06 in June. The contribution of the personal consumption and housing category to the index edged up to -0.06 in July from -0.07 in June. Meanwhile, employment-related indicators contributed +0.09 to the CFNAI in July, down from +0.13 in June. Market participants also began to turn their focus to the Federal Reserve meeting at Jackson Hole, Wyoming later this week, which will be attended by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, ECB president Mario Draghi and other global central bankers.
Asian stock indexes closed mainly higher on Tuesday, tracking modest gains on Wall Street. The trading volumes were light, as investors remained wary ahead of the annual central banking conference in Jackson Hole later this week, which will be attended by the top economists and policymakers. The Australian equity market rose, supported by robust metals prices. The Japanese stock market fell, despite the fact that the yen weakened against the U.S. dollar, which is beneficial to Japanese large export-oriented companies.
European stock indexes are expected to trade mixed in the morning trading session.
Yields of US 10-year notes hold at 2.19% (+1 basis points)
Yields of German 10-year bonds hold at 0.40% (0 basis points)
Yields of UK 10-year gilts hold at 1.08% (0 basis points)
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI) futures traded higher. Crude oil for delivery in October settled at $47.73 (+0.42%). The crude oil prices rose moderately, correcting after yesterday's 2% fall, triggered by news the Joint Technical Committee of OPEC and non-OPEC nations meeting in Vienna assessed July compliance to the production-cuts deal at 94 percent compared to 98 percent in June. Market participants are awaiting data on oil inventories in the U.S. Today, the American Petroleum Institute (API) will publish its weekly data on the U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Tomorrow, the focus will be on official report on crude inventories in the U.S. from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).
Gold traded at $1287.90 (-0.26%). Gold prices fell moderately, as the U.S. currency demonstrated strengthening. The index, measuring the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of six major currencies, rose 0.16 percent to 93.24. Since gold prices are tied to the dollar, a stronger dollar makes the precious metal more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.
IV. The most important news that are expected (time GMT0)
ZEW Economic Sentiment
ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment
CBI industrial order books balance
ECB’s Vitor Constancio Speaks
Retail Sales ex Autos
Housing Price Index
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
|remaining time till the new event being published|
Enfoque de mercado
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